Why Conservatives are supporting an increase for old age pensions — and why it’s risky

OTTAWA — Conservatives are not committing to implementing the BQ’s desired boost for benefits for seniors 65 to 74 if they form government — but if they do, it will come at the expense of finding $16 billion in savings over five years, says the leader’s Quebec lieutenant.

Pierre Poilievre’s caucus raised a few eyebrows when it supported a Bloc Québécois motion calling for the Liberal government to support a BQ private member’s bill to increase Old Age Security (OAS) by 10 per cent for seniors aged 65 to 74. According to the parliamentary budget officer, that would come at a net cost of $16.1 billion over five years — a little over $3 billion per year.

Former Alberta MLA Derek Fildebrandt said it was a “total betrayal” of key Conservative principles the party has championed.

Asked to explain the rationale, the party offered a statement from its critic for seniors, MP Anna Roberts, who put the blame on the Liberals for the high cost of living.

“After a lifetime of work and playing by the rules, the power of seniors’ cheques has been wiped out by (Prime Minister Justin) Trudeau. A dollar after nine years of Trudeau doesn’t go as far as it used to,” she said. “It is heartbreaking that our seniors are now the fastest growing group of food bank users and increasingly forced to live in tents and shelters.

“We need a carbon tax election to bring a common sense Conservative government that will unleash the power of our economy to bring home more powerful paycheques and lower prices for all Canadians by axing Trudeau’s taxes and inflationary spending.”

But since he became leader of the Conservative party, Poilievre has been promising to cap government spending with a law requiring that ministers find a dollar of savings for each new dollar of spending. And one of his recurring slogans is to “fix the budget.”

Some Conservative MPs offered few details when asked to explain how adding $16 billion in new handouts would help them “fix” the budget and not fuel inflation.

“That’s a good question,” said Conservative MP Brad Vis on his way to question period on Thursday. His colleague, Michael Barrett, said the way to solve it is to have a “carbon tax election.” Many of their colleagues simply refused to acknowledge the question.

Only Poilievre’s Quebec lieutenant, Pierre Paul-Hus, gave somewhat of a clear answer.

“If we do that, we have to find money somewhere else to save because we can’t pay for everything, for sure,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

Paul-Hus also downplayed the possibility of the Bloc’s private member’s bill to boost OAS passing, given the Liberal government’s refusal to grant a royal recommendation to authorize the expense.

“It’s not a bill we expect to be passed,” he said.

The Conservatives have expressed support for the Bloc’s bill to boost the OAS in the past, voting in favour when it passed  second reading last year.

However, the Bloc has now made the adoption of the bill a condition of its support for the Liberal government. That was slammed as a “political ruse with very little chance of success” during a speech from Conservative MP Jacques Gourde.

“If the Bloc Québécois really cared about people, it would instead support a Conservative non-confidence motion and change the leadership of our country,” he said.

Trevor Tombe, an economist at the University of Calgary, said he thinks the Conservatives are focused on “shorter-term political calculations.”

“It is increasingly looking like the final days of Parliament, and in that kind of environment, it’s natural for opposition parties to just want to keep the pressure on the government, even on issues that they wouldn’t follow through on if they were to be in government.

“I don’t think they genuinely view this as a wise policy move,” he added. “It is just about creating pressure for the government.”

Paul Kershaw, founder of Generation Squeeze, which advocates for what it calls “generational fairness,” said Poilievre has been able to attract a younger demographic thanks to his focus on housing. But Kershaw said the Tories’ support for increasing the OAS could be seen as “incredibly disingenuous” to those same younger voters.

“We are going to further mortgage the future for younger Canadians with larger and larger tax transfers to an older demographic that haven’t been planned for,” he said.

The Old Age Security program — which includes the OAS pension and the Guaranteed Income Supplement (GIS) for low-income seniors — is the government’s largest program and is projected to deliver $80.6 billion to more than seven million seniors this year. Unlike the Canada Pension Plan, it’s not funded by recipients, but by taxpayers.

With an aging population, OAS annual expenditures are expected to grow to almost $100 billion by 2028–29 and to about $234 billion by 2055–56, the federal budget projects.

Tombe said if the government wants to target low-income seniors, they should instead boost the more targeted GIS at a fraction of the cost of the Bloc’s proposal. He estimated that increasing it by 10 per cent would cost about $900 million per year, or $4.6 billion over five years, benefitting only seniors who need it.

Liberal MP Wayne Long, who voted for the Bloc’s motion, said he and some MPs expressed at the time it should have been increased for people 65 and older “from the get-go.”

“To offer it to one segment and not another is divisive, and obviously, it upset a lot of other seniors,” he said.

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